![]() EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. The Broncos remain in the lower tier in terms of offensive touchdowns per game, often contributing to lower-scoring games due to their conservative style. At the very least, Russell Wilson does not shy away from taking shots to his big-play receivers, averaging 4.1 deep attempts per game and 5.2 red zone pass attempts, both ranking in the top ten among quarterbacks. Even while ranking 25th in average score differential, their pass plays per game and overall pace remain near the bottom of the league. ![]() Denver's gameplay is characterized by a slower pace and a lower-than-average pass rate in neutral game scripts. Despite winning six out of their last eight games, they’ve been shaky of late, highlighted by a bad loss to Detroit in Week 15. They're part of a tight competition with seven teams at 7-7 or 8-6, making every game a playoff-like scenario. The Broncos, with a record of 7-7, are on the fringe of the very AFC playoff race. They average 1.5 touchdowns per game, fifth worst in the league. Since Zappe's takeover, the team's deep attempts per game have dipped to 2.3, and red zone pass attempts are just under one per game. Despite these efforts, they struggle to maintain drives, resulting in a below-average total of pass plays per game. The Patriots' offense has been characterized by a higher-than-average pass rate and faster play in neutral game scripts. The focus is now on Bailey Zappe under center, as they look towards a future that likely includes a top quarterback pick in the 2024 draft. They're beat up at the skill positions, with Juju Smith-Schuster, Rhamondre Stephenson, and now Hunter Henry set to miss Sunday's contest. They’ve lost nine out of their last 11 games. ![]() The Patriots, standing at 3-11, are in a tough spot, holding the second pick in the upcoming draft if the season ended today. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. ![]() This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). Let’s look into the data and note the core playmakers and key strategies to help you dominate this single-game slate.įor up-to-the-minute updates leading up to kickoff, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscriber-only Discord channel. For the Patriots, it’s as close to must-lose if they know what’s best for their franchise’s long-term health. For the Broncos, it's a game loaded with playoff implications. Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 16 Sunday Night football, a matchup between the Patriots at Broncos that looks less than thrilling on paper with a 34-point total. BetMGM + 4for4 Sub Deal (Free Betting Subscription).VividPicks + 4for4 Sub Deal (Free Subscription).
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